The newest abnormal Nov 3, 2009
Students of economic history found this disconcertingly reminiscent of the fateful view from the "Roaring Twenties" that central banking had conquered the business cycle. Central banking has repeatedly been given way too much Credit, while the expansive influence of speculative finance is always easily ignored. (Asia Times Online)
End of price deflation? Nov 2, 2009
The SARB Leading Business Cycle Indicator for August showed a further month-on-month rise of 2. 2 percent. (iAfrica.com)
As developers push a Milford casino, nearby towns fret Nov 1, 2009
So you d be opening up right into the growth phase of the business cycle, he said. Palmer, for example, which would likely compete with the Milford proposal geographically for what is expected to be only two or three casino licenses statewide, has already passed a referendum, he said. (Boston Globe)
Bollin on Business: Strengthen your business - take a hike Nov 1, 2009
Business owners are trying to negotiate this nerve-wracking economic slowdown and unpredictable business cycle. Let s face it business is tough to get. (Green Valley News & Sun, AZ)
Readers dont believe the recession is over Oct 30, 2009
Single quarter of GDP growth not enough for business cycle arbiters. Video. (MSNBC -- Business)
Obama Bridge to Growth May Go Nowhere as Feldstein Warns of `Double Dip' Oct 30, 2009
The U.S. economy probably hit its trough during the summer following four straight quarters of contraction, said , a Harvard University professor and member of the National Bureau of Economic Researchs Business Cycle Dating Committee. The committee is responsible for deciding when recessions begin and end. (Bloomberg -- US)
How does he do it? Oct 27, 2009
Twenty years later, the business cycle drooped again, offering Mr Buffett a chance to buy the company outright for $2. 3 billion. (BBC News -- Business)
Government Porkfare Is No Way to End Recession Oct 27, 2009
The official arbiter of such things -- the National Bureau of Economic Researchs Business Cycle Dating Committee -- isnt about to bless the recovery just yet. The BCDC waited until July 2003 to declare an to the March-to-November 2001 recession. (Bloomberg -- Columnists)
Prepare for deteriorating home affordability, the return of inflation concerns and rising interest rates. Oct 26, 2009
Every stage of the business cycle has both advantages and disadvantages and though only a fool would be sorry the recession wasn't as bad as we feared, we can still be sorry we're skimping on the advantages of a severe recession. The economy grew by about 1 per cent in the first half of this calendar year and the Reserve Bank is forecasting growth ''close to trend'' over the course of 2010, which means a bit more than 3 per cent.. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Leading indicators point to growth in 2010 Oct 23, 2009
The Conference Board's coincident index, which measures the current state of the business cycle, was unchanged in September after increasing 1 percent in both August and July. The July gain was the first in nine months. (MSNBC -- Business)
New jobless claims rise; leading economic indicators strong Oct 23, 2009
The Conference Board's coincident index, which measures the current state of the business cycle, was unchanged in September after increasing 1% in both August and July. The July gain was the first in nine months. (USA Today -- Money)
Custody is like flying a jumbo jet: not much ever goes wrong, but when it does ... Oct 22, 2009
The subprime meltdown and the ensuing financial crisis have, as in every business cycle, thrown up faults in the system and in its guardians. The auditors have put on a demonstrably poor show, vide Allco, Centro, Babcock and myriad others. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Data to bring inflation back into focus Oct 22, 2009
5 per cent, which would still be above the 2 to 3 per cent target range the RBA tries to hit, on average through the ups and downs of the business cycle. It would mean the annualised rate over the latest half-year was down to around 3. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
The waiting is the hardest part Oct 22, 2009
the 2000-2007 business cycle was the first ever in which the nation's middle-class families had less real income at the end than when they started. . (Salon)
Impact of the Global Financial Crisis and Its Implications for the East Asian Economy, Keynote Speech by Mr. Takatoshi Kato, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, At the Korea International Financial Association, First International Conference Oct 22, 2009
This so-called macro-prudential regulation would oblige banks to build up capital buffers based on a set of variables that vary over the business cycle, such as credit growth or bank earnings. The crisis has also revealed shortcomings in the regulation and supervision of liquidity management. (IMF News)
Acosta leasing new office site Oct 22, 2009
The deal reflects the fact that some companies are willing to invest in improved efficiencies and operations at the beginning of a business cycle, he said. NorthMarq s McCarthy said Acosta is increasing its square footage slightly, but the move was mainly motivated by the company s desire to consolidate its locations into one. (Twin Cities Business Journal, MN)
Finance and Economic Growth, Remarks by First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky Oct 20, 2009
Bernanke, Ben S. and Mark Gertler, (1989) Agency Costs, Net Worth and Business Cycle fluctuations American Economic Review, Volume 79(1) March. Bernanke, Ben S. (1983) Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression , American Economic review, Volume 73(3), June. (IMF News)
Asian outlook good for Australia: RBA Oct 19, 2009
But the shift away from the developed economies and the US and Europe meant business cycle fluctuations in Asia are also likely to have a bigger effect on the dynamics of the Australian business cycle than has been the case in the past, said Mr Lowe. Despite this, I suspect many of us still better understand what is going on in the 50 states of the United States of America than in the 30 plus provinces and administrative regions of China, or the 28 states and seven union territories of... (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Good times, but we're not out of the woods Oct 19, 2009
"But you'd have thought that the worst year in the global economy since the global economy since the Great Depression might have punched a bigger hole in Western Australia's business cycle.". That seemed the way the state's economy was initially heading, as employment and retail sales plunged faster than th 00004000 e rest of the country, and exports to the UK, US and Japan fell. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Business inventories fall 1.5 percent Oct 15, 2009
The recession began in December 2007 and inventories are a critical component of changes in gross domestic product over the business cycle. Business inventories dived a record $160. (MSNBC -- Business)
CAPS Roundtable: Inflation, Deflation, and Your Portfolio Oct 14, 2009
Intelledgement: Well, a bubble-burst engendered downturn in the business cycle "should" result in deflation, but the world's central banks averted that outcome by injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the system and by propping up zombie financial institutions right and left ... possibly if support for the dollar is not cut off soon enough -- resulting in a loss of confidence in all fiat currency accompanied by material social/political unrest as well as a calamitous downturn in the... (MSNBC -- Business)
Myer goes public - but does the public care? Oct 14, 2009
It would have positive implications for shopping centres but bode poorly for the many somnolent retail chains that have made a comfortable living for years in shopping centres just living off the locations and surfing the business cycle. However, shopping centre operators will first have to break their fixation on retailers like Myer. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Job Losses Stoke Mid-Term Fear for Dems Oct 13, 2009
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the is generally seen as the authoritative arbiter for dating U.S. recessions. It takes other things into account besides GDP, including employment levels, real personal income, industrial production, and wholesale and retail sales. (CBS News)
Don't Settle for sales in a slump Oct 11, 2009
The slow down could just be a part of the regular business cycle. One solution may be to save money during the busy time of the year to cover expenses when things slow down. (Coos Bay-North Bend The World, OR)
Author Gross Decries Healthcare Figures as Lie Oct 10, 2009
All it does is increase the deficit, and it has no value," Gross said. "If we come back, its because the business cycle will enable us to come back not because of Mr. Obama or the federal government. . (Newsmax)
Buttonwood: The nature of wealth Oct 9, 2009
This truth is obscured by the business cycle, which causes revenues and margins to fluctuate, and by the vicissitudes of investor sentiment, which cause shares to be derated and rerated (the dividend yield to rise and fall). A rise in share prices that is caused by a rerating does not make us richer in aggregate, unless that rerating represents an accurate prediction about an improvement in an economy s long-term growth rate. (The Economist)
Gold futures hit new all-time high of $1047.40 an ounce in electronic trade Oct 7, 2009
Once upon a time, you could tell where we were in the business cycle by the state of the labor markets. But we've gotten out of synch. (CBS MarketWatch)
Comment on this article Oct 7, 2009
It was the year before the business cycle bubble burst for a decade, and energy prices became a national rather than a consumer issue, as a result of the first oil embargo. NEPA and the environmental movement were emerging green glimmers. (Energy Pulse, CO)
Zeti: Need for stable financial systems Oct 7, 2009
Zeti said the global dimension of the current crisis called for a higher degree of collective determination by the international community to work together towards developing a global strategy that would evolve a financial system that was stable and sustainable over the entire business cycle. As Islamic finance continues to become an integral part of the global financial system, it will increasingly be exposed to risks of financial stress arising from global financial instability and global... (The Star Online, Malaysia -- Business)
Obama's permanent depression Oct 6, 2009
In a normal business cycle, falling output leads to lower yields on low-risk bonds, which in turn encourages investors to add risk to their portfolios by investing in businesses. If the safest of all investments, namely US Treasuries, suddenly offer much higher real yields, comparable to the boom years of the late 1990s, why should investors take risk. (Asia Times Online)
No way to fix a collapse Oct 6, 2009
Just because everyone believed the enlightened Federal Reserve had forever mastered the business cycle, why couldn't they have been more skeptical. That the economic community, the regulator community, the Federal Reserve and the marketplace all missed this credit bubble dynamic is, apparently, no excuse. (Asia Times Online)
Construction down but growth foreseen Oct 6, 2009
While it's very likely we've bottomed out in the economic recession, we seem to be riding along the bottom of the business cycle with little forward momentum, the report stated. Reporter e-mail: aljones@bizjournals. (Triangle Business Journal)
Starting a business is all about timing Oct 4, 2009
The best time of year to start a business depends on the type of business and when the business cycle is at its best. For instance, construction companies are busiest in the spring, summer and fall. (Coos Bay-North Bend The World, OR)
FNB: House price decline drops at steady pace Oct 2, 2009
With regard to the economy, Kellerman said there have been some early signs of levelling out, with the SARB Leading Business Cycle Indicator starting a rising trend during recent months after a major decline in 2008. It is conceivable that economy-wide production could be showing some signs of stabilising, and that the 3rd quarter may have seen the end of the recession, noted Kellerman. (Business Report, South Africa)
Transcript of the Global Financial Stability Report Press Conference with Jose Viñals, Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department Oct 2, 2009
The basic idea to emphasize is that the losses that are ahead of us that still have to be recognized are those which are associated with a traditional deterioration of the loans having to do with the business cycle. That is why this is still to be recognized, because it still has not happened. (IMF News)
Read the Cost of Freedom recap Sep 30, 2009
Charles Payne: Coming out of a recession is all apart of the business cycle ... It prolongs downward business cycles. (Fox News)
BEE firms could warm up to family businesses Sep 30, 2009
But if you have spent years building a quality portfolio, you will be reluctant to compromise it by opportunistic buying near the bottom of the business cycle. Why would a family business that had stalled on BEE for years suddenly have a change of heart in the middle of a downturn. (Business Report, South Africa)
Ending Central Bank Secrecy Sep 30, 2009
Congressman Ed Royce (R-CA), who introduced himself to me afterward, mentioned Ludwig von Mises and the Austrian theory of the business cycle, which he had also done during his questioning of the Feds general counsel. Again, that is partly off topic, but going a bit off topic is not exactly unheard of in the history of congressional hearings. (The American Conservative)
Gains in rand won't stop recovery: Absa Sep 30, 2009
Figures last week showed that SA's leading business cycle indicator - which predicts trends in the economy in six to 12 months - dipped in July after rising for three months in a row. "We believe that the upward trend is still intact and we don't view the drop in July as a reversal of the upward trend, just a slight pause," Reserve Bank economist Ian Venter said yesterday. (Business Report, South Africa)
Stocks of fundamentally strong cos during corrective phase Sep 30, 2009
As the revenue and profitability of these companies vary widely during a business cycle, their share price shows sharp and sudden reversal depending on the mood on the Dalal Street. What this means is that an alert investors can use any of these stocks or a mix of them to ride the ups and down in the market and make a neat profit. (India Times)
Tom Woods Testifies Sep 25, 2009
Have these critics never heard of the political business cycle. Fed chairmen have been known to ingratiate themselves into the presidents favor close to election time by means of loose monetary policy and the false (and temporary) prosperity it brings about. (The American Conservative)
Lead indicator points to frail recovery: economist Sep 25, 2009
Confirmation that the recovery in the business cycle would be "slow, fragile and uneven" came on Wednesday from the Reserve Bank's leading economic indicator, Investec group economist Annabel Bishop said. The indicator, which points to conditions about six months ahead, came in at 109. (Business Report, South Africa)
SA leading indicator loses winning streak Sep 24, 2009
The coincident indicator is an economic factor that varies directly and simultaneously with the business cycle, thus indicating the current state of the economy ... The SARB uses over 200 economic time series to determine the turning points of the South African business cycle ... Using these indicators, the leading, coincident and lagging composite business cycle indices are produced that indicate the direction of the change in economic activity rather than the level of economic activity. (Business Report, South Africa)
Obama Starts Unit to Turn Entrepreneur Ideas Into `Great Company Builders' Sep 24, 2009
This office will be geared toward the first step in the business cycle: moving an idea from somebodys imagination or from a research lab into a business plan, Locke said in the remarks prepared for a conference sponsored by Inc. magazine later today. What we need to do is get better at connecting the great ideas to the great company builders. (Bloomberg)
The Case for Higher Interest Rates Sep 24, 2009
Instead, they manage the business cycle by manipulating the supply of and demand for money. If the Goldilocks Economy is getting a tad overheated, the Fed withdraws money and raises short-term interest rates. (The American Conservative)
Gross domestic fudging Sep 23, 2009
Yes, that's a bottom-to-top comparison in terms of the business cycle, but that differential is the sign of a healthy economy - as is the overall rate of growth. The economy was growing rapidly, while government was growing more slowly (by 2. (Asia Times Online)
Leading Economic Indicators Rise In August Sep 23, 2009
An accompanying index meant to measure the current state of the business cycle was flat. The July reading was revised up to a 0. (KWTX.com, TX)
Manpower Inc. Recognized as One of America's Greenest Companies Sep 23, 2009
With over 60 years' experience, the $22 billion company offers employers a range of services for the entire employment and business cycle including permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment and selection; training; outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower's worldwide network of 4,100 offices in 82 countries and territories enables the company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors,... (PR Newswire)
The Conference Board(R) France Business Cycle Indicators(SM) Sep 22, 2009
Text hiding to spacing. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for France and Related Composite Economic Indexes for July 2009. (PR Newswire)
Investors consider stock market bandwagon Sep 22, 2009
He wrote, "It has been a generation since a business cycle downturn exacted the collective pain that this one has done. Knocked for a loop, we forget a truism. With regard to the recession that precedes the recovery, worse is subsequently better. The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery.". Perhaps a bigger explanation for the market's resurgence is that the Federal Reserve, through extraordinary measures, has pushed interest rates to near zero and seems content leaving them there. (San Francisco Chronicle -- Business)
Press Release: Statement by an IMF Staff Mission to the Dominican Republic Sep 19, 2009
However, a severe decline of tax collections, coupled with limited financing access (heightened by the international financial crisis) has constrained the possibility to conduct an appropriate fiscal response, exacerbating the business cycle. At the same time, many challenges remain in the structural area, especially in the electricity sector, where large untargeted subsidies represent a heavy burden on the budget and reduced further the capacity of the government to react to the crisis. (IMF News)
Asian stocks slip over US data Sep 18, 2009
The Bank of Japan deputy governor, Hirohide Yamaguchi, said a positive business cycle was starting and signalled the central bank could soon withdraw emergency support for corporate funding. But Japanese stocks fell as investors sold shares of exporters that had run-up sharply while there was also wariness about taking new positions ahead of public holidays early next week. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Germany's election: A change of partners? Sep 18, 2009
The next government, whatever its makeup, will reduce this: members of the euro zone are supposed to limit public-sector deficits to 3% of GDP, and a new constitutional amendment directs the federal government to cut its structural deficit (ie, adjusted for the business cycle) to 0. 35% of GDP by 2016. (The Economist)
Asian stocks retreat from 13-month highs Sep 18, 2009
Hirohide Yamaguchi, deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, said a positive business cycle was starting and signalled that the central bank could soon withdraw emergency support for corporate funding. Reuters Limited. (FT.com -- Markets)
Asian Shares Retreat, Dollar Gains Respite Sep 18, 2009
Investors in Japan were cautious ahead of a stretch of public holidays early next week even though the Bank of Japan deputy governor, Hirohide Yamaguchi, said a positive business cycle was starting and signaled the central bank could soon withdraw emergency support for corporate funding. "A pickup in the global economy is expected to continue for some time," Yamaguchi told a forum in Tokyo. (ABC News -- Wire)
Audit the Fed, Then End It Sep 18, 2009
Don t you think the Fed has moderated the business cycle over the past century. Yes, I think they did smooth things out. (The American Conservative)
U.S. Industrial Output Rises Again, Inflation Tame Sep 17, 2009
"Industrial production is one of the most important indicators when determining business cycle turning points. The official end of the recession will be dated as August," predicted Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit Markets and Investment Banking in New York. The private-sector group that dates recessions often takes months to make determinations. (ABC News -- Wire)
US industrial output rises - again Sep 17, 2009
"Industrial production is one of the most important indicators when determining business cycle turning points." said Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit Markets and Investment Banking in New York. US stocks rose strongly on the industrial production data, while shorter-dated government bond prices fell. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
End the Fed -- A Preview Sep 17, 2009
The Fed s architects might have imagined that it would help smooth out the business cycle provided you think that the real problem of the cycle is its bust phase when credit contracts ... In 1912, Ludwig von Mises wrote The Theory of Money and Credit, which warned that central banks would worsen and spread business cycles rather than eliminate them. (The American Conservative)
Why capitalism fails Sep 13, 2009
But where most economists drew a single, simplistic lesson from Keynes - that government could step in and micromanage the economy, smooth out the business cycle, and keep things on an even keel - Minsky had no interest in what he and a handful of other dissident economists came to call bastard Keynesianism. Instead, Minsky drew his own, far darker, lessons from Keynes s landmark writings, which dealt not only with the problem of unemployment, but with money and banking. (Boston Globe)
Businesses' concerns being met Sep 13, 2009
He said the group conveyed the thought that, "We're all in this together. You're all an important part of the business cycle in Hinds County and the city of Jackson.". To comment on this story, call Jeff Ayres at (601) 961-7050. (The Clarion-Ledger)
Why the best and brightest were upended Sep 12, 2009
It also implies that markets are perfectly self-correcting, that government interference in markets is unnecessary and probably damaging and, indeed, that the business cycle doesn't exist. Now, if you're not an economist you're entitled to be incredulous at this point. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Supply of used cars dented by Cash for Clunkers program Sep 11, 2009
"I got the cars and I ain't got the buyers," he said describing an unusually slow business cycle. It's been about a month since Fred Red sold a vehicle at his dealership, Southside Auto and Motorcycle Sales in Jackson. (The Clarion-Ledger)
Bogged down at the Fed Sep 11, 2009
Instead, Bernanke told Congress in a tone devoid of any sense of urgency: "The magnitude of the slowdown has been somewhat greater than would be expected given the normal evolution of the business cycle." And he dismissed as alarmist the concern of some market analysts and participants over the clearly visible signs of distress in the subprime mortgage market and its serious systemic impact globally. "At this juncture ... the impact [of the distressed subprime mortgage market] on the broader... (Asia Times Online)
Making fiscal policy credible: Bind games Sep 11, 2009
The first is a numerical policy rule, such as a target for the debt ratio or, as in Chile, a pledge to run a budget surplus of 1% of GDP over the business cycle. The second is a set of procedural rules, such as a cap on public-sector pay growth or as in Hungary now and America until 2002 a pay-go rule that says new spending schemes have to be funded by tax increases or cuts in other programmes. (The Economist)
