transcript of Press Briefing on the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook by Olivier Blanchard, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department Oct 2, 2009
So, if you put this together and you think that eventually fiscal deficits will have to be smaller and private demand or private domestic demand is going to be weak in some advanced countries, especially in the U.S., this implies that these countries will have to rely more on foreign demand, on net exports and, by implication, this implies that some emerging market countries will need to do the reverse, rely less on net exports ... Therefore, in the context of this rebalancing, we have to think... (IMF News)
Kings comments taken as a sell Sep 26, 2009
The fall in the exchange rate that we have seen will be helpful, but theres no doubt that we need to see a shift of resources into net exports that compete with imports and help to reduce the trade deficit, he said. EDITORS CHOICE. (FT.com -- Markets)
Gross domestic fudging Sep 23, 2009
If therefore we are to follow Stiglitz and calculate GDP by numerous definitions, let's take the definition that actually represents the genuinely valuable output of a real economy and switch to gross private product (GPP), defined in Keynesian terms not as consumption plus investment plus government spending plus net exports, but simply as consumption plus investment plus net exports. Real US GDP peaked in the second quarter of 2008 and has dropped 3. (Asia Times Online)
Australia can still enjoy the ride as Chinese stimulus wears off Sep 14, 2009
That would add back the 3 percentage points of GDP growth that net exports had recently taken away. By then China's famous imbalances - over-reliance on exports and construction at the expense of everything else - will be back to the fore. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Iran vows no compromise on nuke issue Sep 13, 2009
Iran has the world's second largest gas reserves, but has no major net exports, partly because of U.S. and U.N. sanctions. Turkey and four European Union countries in July signed a transit deal for the Nabucco gas pipeline, aimed at cutting Europe's dependence on Russia, but no concrete supply deals have yet been signed for the 7. (MSNBC -- International)
Brazil's Economy Expanded 1.9% in Second Quarter, Putting End to Recession Sep 12, 2009
BNP Paribas chief economist wrote to clients that the stronger-than-expected contribution from net exports means GDP should shrink only 0. 3 percent this year, instead of a previously forecast 0. (Bloomberg -- Latin America)
Riding the tsunami Sep 12, 2009
" By August the Reserve Bank governor, Glenn Stevens, ventured to say it may be "one of the shallower" downturns Australia has experienced. But isn't this all just dumb luck? Australia is China's quarry. And China, after a brief falter, has rebounded. So isn't Australia simply riding the China boom? It's certainly true that China's voracious appetite helped Australia avoid a jolting loss of exports. So while the US suffered a 15 per cent slump in exports last financial year, and Japan a... (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Economy Grew Less Than First Estimated as Firms Cut Spending, Stockpiles Sep 12, 2009
Net exports -- the difference between exports and imports -- contributed 1. 6 percentage points to Japans expansion, unchanged from the first reading. (Bloomberg -- Japan)
Canada Has July Trade Deficit of C$1.4 Billion as Energy Imports Climb Sep 11, 2009
4 percentage points to this year, after net exports cut 1. 9 percentage points from growth in 2008. (Bloomberg -- Canada)
New Zealand's Export Prices Tumble By Most in 58 Years as Currency Surges Sep 10, 2009
Net exports probably made a positive contribution to in the three months to June 30, adding to signs the economy may have expanded in the second quarter, said Clements. Other reports have shown a rise in retail sales volumes in the quarter, while housing construction slumped. (Bloomberg -- Australia & New Zealand)
To stimulate or not is a matter of extremely delicate timing Sep 8, 2009
Two of the bureau's three measures of GDP went backwards in the year to June, and the third went backwards for everything except net exports, where it says Australia was increasing exports when everyone else was reporting huge losses. Can't believe that. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Opinion)
Indian economydrier than forecast Sep 4, 2009
Hence, (X-M) means net exports, or the trade balance. In effect, India's exports impact GDP positively, while imports do so negatively. (Asia Times Online)
Quarterbacks abound: Exports alone can't fuel global recovery Sep 3, 2009
The savior of private demand could come from three sources: consumption, investment and net exports ... That leaves one option, the IMF's Blanchard explained in a recent analysis: "Sustained recovery is likely to require an increase in U.S. net exports and a corresponding decrease in the rest of the world, coming mainly from Asia." Economists call that kind of fundamental shift rebalancing. (USA Today -- Money)
Current Account Deficit in Australia Widens as Coal, Iron Ore Exports Fall Sep 1, 2009
Net exports subtracted 0. 2 percentage points from gross domestic product in the quarter, the statistics bureau said. (Bloomberg -- Australia & New Zealand)
'Jobless recovery' won't work Aug 30, 2009
The simplest measure of overall growth, the gross domestic product, or GDP, is made up of consumer spending, business investment, government expenditures and net exports ... That leaves net exports. (NJ.com -- Times)
GDP to beat RBA expectations: economists Aug 30, 2009
But he said that net exports, another component of GDP, made precise predictions difficult. "Net exports, its a wild card really," he said ... " Net exports is the difference between imports and exports in real terms. Because imports are not included in GDP but exports are, the measure of net exports is the difference between aggregate spending and total output or GDP. A positive GDP number for the June quarter would be the second in a row for the nation, which narrowly avoided a recession in... (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Japan jobless rate hits postwar high Aug 29, 2009
Net exports, especially in high-tech industries and materials such as chemicals and steel, tentatively led Japan out of recession. The uptick marked the end of the worst recession in Japan since the end of World War II. Japan's GDP fell at a record pace during the January-March quarter, when GDP was 15. (CNN -- International)
It's a recovery, but abnormally slow, says IMF Aug 20, 2009
US net exports must increase'' for the US recovery to occur, he said. From the point of view of the United States, a decrease in China's current account surplus would help increase demand, and sustain the US recovery. (Sydney Morning Herald -- World)
Global recovery requires rebalancing act: IMF economist Aug 19, 2009
0 percent drop unlikely to be made up by increased investment and the eventual phase-out of the massive fiscal stimulus, "US net exports must increase" for the US recovery to occur, he said. Key to the rebalancing act will be an increase in foreign demand for US goods, particularly in countries with large current account surpluses, notably in China and other Asian countries. (Yahoo! Asia News)
IMF says global recovery requires US, Asia rebalancing Aug 19, 2009
" Blanchard said two rebalancing acts will have to come into play to sustain the global recovery: a switch from public to private spending and the rebalancing of international trade flows. The latter would require "a shift from domestic to foreign demand in the United States and a reverse shift from foreign to domestic demand in the rest of the world, particularly in Asia," he said. Pointing to a decline in American household consumption - which "represents 70 per cent of total US demand" - and... (Channelnewsasia.com)
The U.S. economy will experience a U-shaped recovery and the recession will come to an end this year, a leading U.S. economist said recently. • Global economic recovery requires delicate sustaining acts Aug 19, 2009
"If the U.S. recovery is to take place, if the fiscal stimulus must be phased out, and if private domestic demand is weak, then U.S. net exports must increase. In other words, the U.S. current account deficit must decrease. That means that the rest of the world, now in substantial surplus, must reduce that current account surplus," he noted. Blanchard said that an understanding of the issues at stake and the dangers as well as coordination between countries are likely to be as crucial during the... (Xinhuanet, China)
Data suggest recession in the U.S. far from over Aug 18, 2009
Domestic demand, especially consumption, is now weak or falling in over-spending countries (such as the U.S., the UK, Spain, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand), while not increasing fast enough in over-saving countries (China, Germany, Japan) to compensate for the reduction in these countries' net exports. Thus, there is a global slackening of aggregate demand relative to the glut of supply capacity, which will impede a robust global economic recovery. (Xinhuanet, China)
U.S. economists warn possible danger ahead amid signs of economic recovery Aug 18, 2009
Investment and net exports will be the drivers that lift the economy out of recession, but there is no evidence that those indicators are picking up, he said. Unemployment will continue to weaken the market, given that the jobless tend to spend less, he said. (Xinhuanet, China)
Behind the GDP Numbers Aug 1, 2009
Net exports added $47. 2 billion to growth while government spending was up 5. (BusinessWeek)
Rebalancing China's economy: The spend is nigh Jul 31, 2009
Another way to look at the huge swing in China s trade is that net exports (exports minus imports) contributed 2 ... And over the past ten years net exports accounted, on average, for only one-tenth of its growth. (The Economist)
* ECFA to boost GDP, create jobs: CIER Jul 30, 2009
Balance of trade X or net exports X would experience an annual boost of US$1. 76 billion to 1. (Taipei Times, Taiwan)
* III, Nanjing foreign trade bureau ink trade memorandum Jul 28, 2009
6 percent while related net exports grew 21. 6 percent, Industrial Development Bureau Director-General Woody Duh (x) said yesterday. (Taipei Times, Taiwan -- World Business)
US saves its way into strife Jul 28, 2009
Without a fall in the dollar and the resulting rise in net exports, a higher saving rate and reduced consumer spending could push the US economy into a deep recession. By contrast, the lower dollar makes reduced consumption consistent with full employment by shifting consumer spending from imports to domestic goods and services, and by supplementing this rise in domestic demand with increased exports. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Vital Signs: Is the Worst of the Recession Over? Jul 24, 2009
Weakness in consumer spending, capital spending by businesses, and homebuilding more than offset positive contributions from net exports and government outlays. Despite the ongoing weakness in demand, this outcome would actually be a plus for second-half growth. (BusinessWeek)
Strategist: GDP Will Be Triple Estimates Jul 24, 2009
Real net exports already added 0. 5 percent to 1. (Newsmax)
Public Information Notice: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2009 Article IV Consultation with the People's Republic of China Jul 23, 2009
Public Information Notice: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2009 Article IV Consultation with the People's Republic of China. Free Email Notification. (IMF News)
White House sees progress on GDP Jul 20, 2009
Orszag said the feeling of fear and panic in financial markets had dissipated and the White House was focused on job growth, consumption, and net exports, all key drivers of economic activity. Although there are signs of progress, Orszag cautioned it was going to take time for the US economy to recover, especially with unemployment expected to rise further. (Boston Globe)
China's asset bubble to grow bigger Jul 18, 2009
The answer, economists say, is not until private sector investment, household consumption and net exports are strong enough to fill the hole in the economy that would be left, if the government scaled back its spending or cracked down on credit. In practice, said Qing Wang, Morga 00004000 n Stanleys chief China economist, that is unlikely to happen before next year. (India Times)
Trade Deficit in the U.S. Probably Widened in May Amid Higher Oil Prices Jul 10, 2009
5 percent annual rate in the first quarter, even as net exports made a positive contribution of 2. 4 percentage points. (Bloomberg -- US)
Exports likely to outpace fragile imports Jul 2, 2009
"The value of metal ore and minerals exports fell by two per cent, a strong result given the large falls in contract prices for iron ore that have been announced recently,'' he said. JPMorgan economist Helen Kevans said exports had saved Australia from a technical recession in the March quarter, contributing 2.2 percentage points to growth. "We believe that net exports will continue to support growth in the near term, although mainly owing to a slump in imports,'' Ms Kevans said. "Weaker imports... (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Consumer spending in Asia: Shopaholics wanted Jun 26, 2009
In most Asian economies falling domestic demand was more important than the drop in net exports in explaining the collapse in GDP growth. The surge in food and energy prices in the first half of 2008 squeezed profits and spending power. (The Economist)
Japan export rebound slows as global demand weak Jun 25, 2009
8 billion yen, the highest level in a year, signalling that net exports will likely make a positive contribution to GDP in April-June, after having made a huge dent in the two preceding quarters. Expectations are growing that export-driven Japan may already be out of recession technically, with the economy seen growing 0. (The Star Online, Malaysia -- Business)
Thai Exports Tumble Most in at Least 17 Years as Recession Erodes Demand Jun 20, 2009
We dont think it will worsen the economy in the second quarter because imports remain low, which will be positive for net exports, said Capital Nomuras Nuchjarin. Thailands economy shrank 7. (Bloomberg -- Asia)
Moving Beyond the Crisis: Global Outlook and Policy Challenges, Keynote address by John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF, to Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TÜSIAD) Jun 19, 2009
In particular, just as US growth will become relatively more dependent on expanding net exports and business investment, growth in those emerging economies that have relied principally on export growth while building up large current surpluses in the future will have to depend relatively more on domestic demand growth. The fiscal consolidation that will be required after the crisis and the inevitable rise in private saving in advanced economies reflecting the steep decline in financial and... (IMF News)
Imports slump, signalling economy's weakness Jun 18, 2009
A sharp contraction of imports was one of the main reasons Australia's economy avoided a technical recession in the past two quarters, with the impact on so-called net exports delivering a big positive in growth terms during the first three months of 2009 in particular. The ABS said preliminary analysis showed that merchandise imports on a balance of payments basis fell 5 percent in seasonally adjusted terms to $16. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
W.Bank sees faster China growth, slower FX reserve rise Jun 18, 2009
With net exports set to subtract from growth in 2009, after contributing 0. 8 percentage point of last year's 9. (Yahoo News -- Press Releases)
Eurozone economy hits official record contraction Jun 4, 2009
"Unsurprisingly, the breakdown revealed that net exports, investment and inventories were the main factors behind the 2.5 percent quarterly contraction.... True, an improvement on these fronts is likely going forward, but we dont believe that this will pull the eurozone economy strongly out of recession while global demand remains weak," he added. The eurozone countries have now endured four consecutive quarters of economic contraction. (Yahoo! Asia News)
Nation bucks global trend Jun 4, 2009
2 per cent contribution from net exports - the gap between exports and imports - the economy would have been in severe recession. The export bounce was helped by an 18. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Australia)
Hard slog ahead Jun 3, 2009
that over the remainder of 2009, the strength in net exports and consumer activity will wane and the local economy will suffer at the hands of a sharp fall in business investment and declining income growth, likely leading to higher unemployment rates and a return to negative GDP prints,'' wrote Mr Halmarick. The jobless rate stands at 5. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Asian stocks open mildly higher Jun 3, 2009
Ken Henry, Treasury Secretary, attributed the growth to both net exports and household consumption. The strong economic data sent the Australian dollar up as much as 0. (FT.com -- Markets)
Australia's Building Approvals Climb More Than Expected on Cash Handouts Jun 2, 2009
Australias Building Approvals Rise 5. 1% on Grants (Update2) - Bloomberg. (Bloomberg -- Australia & New Zealand)
Dollar falls ahead of GDP Jun 2, 2009
The ABS said net exports - the difference between export volumes and import volumes - would add 2 ... The result of net exports in the balance of payments meant there was a possibility gross domestic product (GDP) grew in the March quarter. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Public Information Notice: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2009 Article IV Consultation with Canada May 24, 2009
Free Email Notification. Receive emails when we post new items of interest to you. (IMF News)
Japan to regain role as keeper of ironclad deal May 23, 2009
But it remains to be seen whether China's resilience can be sustained into the second half, given that net exports have slumped from an annualised rate of 80 million tonnes to zero. Source. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Rethinking the Global Money Supply May 22, 2009
On average, the dollar should depreciate against Asian currencies to encourage more U.S. net exports to Asia. The euro should probably strengthen against the dollar but weaken against Asian currencies. (Scientific American)
Resources lead the charge May 21, 2009
" Buckland sees European indexes opening lower, with London's FTSE 100 index set to fall 21 points to 4 461. He also sees Frankfurt's DAX index dropping 25 points to 4 934, and the CAC-40 index in Paris down 10 points at 3 265. On Wall Street on Tuesday, US stocks gave back some of Monday's gains as Home Depot and housing data tempered hopes of an imminent turnaround in the housing market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 29.3 points, or 0.3 percent, to 8 474.85, while the broad Standard s... (Business Report, South Africa)
Japan Logs Record GDP Drop May 20, 2009
Net exports proved to be less of a drag on the world's second-largest economy than in the previous three months, and companies ran down inventory. While that lent support to the growing chorus of forecasts that the global economy was pulling out of the dive triggered by the financial crisis, there were grim signals on the outlook for Japan, where GDP is shrinking twice as fast as in the United States. (ABC News -- Wire)
Hydro-Quebec profit falls May 16, 2009
Hydro-Quebec said the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, the positive effect of hedging aluminum prices and the decrease in financial expenses more than offset the drop in net exports. In the 2008 quarter, the company booked a one-time gain of $117-million related to the price adjustment provided for in the contract for the sale of the company's interest in Transelec, in Chile. (Globe and Mail -- Business)
China's export drop not filled by domestic demand May 15, 2009
When China's economy was expanding at a double-digit rate in recent years, analysts estimated that net exports contributed nearly one-third to GDP growth. Growth is expected to slow to about 8 per cent this year, with nearly all momentum coming from domestic consumption and massive government spending in the face of the economic crisis. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
If Consumers Won't Kick-Start the Economy, What Will? May 14, 2009
In GDP lingo, those other sectors are government-consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment (business plus housing) and net exports ... Which leaves net exports. (Time.com)
Crouching tigers May 14, 2009
Suppose that net exports contribute nothing to growth, while domestic demand grows at roughly the same pace as in the past five years, then emerging Asia could see growth of almost 7% over the next five years (around 8% in China, a more modest 5% in the smaller economies). That might sound like a let down for economies that enjoyed average growth of 9% in the three years to 2007. (The Economist)
Germany's economy: The export model sputters May 8, 2009
Between 2004 and 2007 net exports accounted for 60% of growth ... By 2013, net exports will account for 3. (The Economist)
RAM says the economy has started to stabilise in second quarter May 7, 2009
I think when demand stabilises in the second half, we will see at least contribution from net exports. Once demand rises, exports will rise as well, he said. (The Star Online, Malaysia -- Business)
Stimulus injections historically fail Apr 20, 2009
If Congress borrows the money from foreigners, the balance of payments adjusts by equally reducing net exports, leaving net spending unchanged. Every dollar Congress spends must first come from somewhere. (Albany Times Union)
Commentary: Spending won't turn economy around but tax cuts, federal frugality might Apr 19, 2009
Latest Political Stories. Latest World Stories. (Anchorage Daily News)
Some essential figures Apr 18, 2009
It is a measure of a countrys national income or aggregate output, which is commonly quantified by summing up four key components of an economy: the consumption of goods and services by private individuals and businesses; gross investments by the private sector; government expenditure; and net exports ... Net exports typically contribute between 25% and 30% of Malaysias yearly GDP.. (The Star Online, Malaysia -- Business)
The G-20 and the Future of Capitalism Part III Apr 10, 2009
Even at the height of global expansion of trade in the period 2002-07, the increase in net exports contributed only about 15 percent of total real GDP growth in China in that period. Over the last year Chinese exports have fallen from their dizzying heights, and this has caused sizeable job losses in some coastal provinces. (YaleGlobal Online Magazine, CT)
Hydro-Québec profit surges 8% Apr 9, 2009
1-billion for last year, up 8 per cent over 2007, as the company generated higher net exports to the United States and other parts of Canada. The Crown utility said Wednesday it earned $234-million more in 2008 than the nearly $2. (Globe and Mail -- Business)
Japan: The incredible shrinking economy Apr 3, 2009
During the ten years to 2001, net exports contributed nothing to Japan s GDP growth ... If exporters capital spending is included, net exports accounted for almost half of Japan s total GDP growth in the five years to 2007. (The Economist)
Taiwan's ambiguous recovery Apr 2, 2009
The origin of the downturn was in the drop in net exports due to decreased external demand, but domestic demand has stagnated. In fact, the rate of growth in Taiwan's economy had been decelerating for over a year. (Asia Times Online)
