* High stakes in the search for a fiscal exit strategy Sep 20, 2009
When that happens, inflationary expectations will mount, long-term government bond yields will rise, mortgage rates and private market rates will increase and one would end up with stagflation (inflation and recession). So how should we square the policy circle. (Taipei Times, Taiwan -- World Business)
Outside the bubble Sep 19, 2009
He believes the latest crisis should prompt a transformation of macro-economics, just as the Great Depression and 1970s stagflation - the paradoxical coupling of slow growth with high inflation - were catalysts for earlier overhauls in the field. Tall and sinewy with the fidgety demeanour of someone brimming with intellectual energy, Gruen is one of Australia's economic policy insiders. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
First-time jobless claims expected to rise Sep 17, 2009
" I think we are suppose to be feeling like we are bottoming out. All I feel is a sickening feeling of STAGFLATION and it has nothing to do with hunting season. ". Kem Cho wrote on Sep 4, 2009 11:39 AM:" Obama's $787 billion Stimulus bill is not working. Read the following:http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/nation/washington/20090904_ap_factcheckbidenove ". (Longview Daily News, WA)
A deluded G-20 Sep 17, 2009
Their policy mix could lead to long stagflation as in the 1970s. More specifically, the lagged effects of fiscal and money expansion as well as bailouts will be felt over the medium-term and will weigh on economic growth. (Asia Times Online)
Canary in the coal mine Sep 15, 2009
The stagflation of the 1970s is an example of such an outcome. The bottom line is that gold is continuing its long-term bull run, and those who dismiss the message behind its rise do so at their own financial peril. (Asia Times Online)
Zelizer: Obama's moment of truth Sep 10, 2009
Stagflation and unemployment had devastated the American dream in the 1970s. Reagan was determined to reverse the interventionist economic policies that Democrats had championed. (CNN -- US)
Inflation Fear Pushes U.S. Endowments Deeper Into Commodities, Real Estate Sep 9, 2009
We could see a stagflation environment thats similar to the 1970s. . (Bloomberg)
Improving economy not likely to lower jobless rate Sep 4, 2009
" I think we are suppose to be feeling like we are bottoming out. All I feel is a sickening feeling of STAGFLATION and it has nothing to do with hunting season. ". Have something to say about this story. (Longview Daily News, WA)
Public Nuisances: Mark Sanford and the Odd Fellows Sep 3, 2009
Their policies solved most of the major problems of the last half of the 20th century: the Cold War, the urban crisis, stagflation. If it had not been for the 9/11 attacks, President George W. Bush would not have had much to do during his presidency. (Townhall.com)
Costa: On Sen. Edward Kennedy and his oratory Sep 2, 2009
He spoke these lines during the time of stagflation, a period in which inflation and unemployment were growing but the economy was stalled. It was also a time of long gas lines and joblessness. (Westford Eagle, MA)
Economy calls for bolder reforms Sep 1, 2009
And, when inflationary pressure is coupled with low consumption on the part of the consumers, which translates into retreating economic activities, the nightmarish word "stagflation" will visit China and cobble all of us. Getting rid of it in a quick manner. (People's Daily Online, China)
Older People Using More Plastic Aug 31, 2009
Even during stagflation in the '70s, Florida added about 200,000 people a year. More recently, from 2004 to 2006, Florida added about 1,100 people a day, as housing construction's proportion of the state economy grew to twice the national average. (Slate)
The Leadership Factor Aug 30, 2009
Carter screwed up in the Middle East, watched an oil crisis cripple the country, had astronomical interest rates, high unemployment, and stagflation. My vote is on a LBJ-Carter combo as POTUS.. (Townhall.com)
Escape From Washington Aug 26, 2009
MORRIS: If you if we go into a double-dip recession and then there's the bailout of Chrysler and all of that stuff, and then that causes the stagflation. HANNITY: Yes. (Fox News)
An Anemic Recovery for the U.S. Economy Aug 26, 2009
We are in for stagflation that could last for years. Had McCain won, he would be the latter-day Hoover, blamed for the disaster that unfolded on his watch. (Townhall.com)
* Roubini sees double-dip recession risk Aug 25, 2009
That will in turn lead to stagflation, Roubini said. European Central Bank (ECB) officials led by President Jean-Claude Trichet are suggesting they wont rush to reverse their emergency stimulus amid mounting evidence of an economic recovery. (Taipei Times, Taiwan -- Sports)
Fed faces balancing act Aug 22, 2009
A Bernanke predecessor, Paul Volcker, was credited with ending 1970s "stagflation," a toxic mix of stagnant economic activity and inflation, by ratcheting up interest rates to their highest levels since the Civil War. But those high rates helped produce the recession that drove unemployment to its postwar high of 10. (Pocatello Idaho State Journal, ID)
Pension fund leaders turning backs on stocks Aug 18, 2009
The last time British pension funds held so little in equities was in 1974, after the Middle East oil embargo ushered in a decade of stagnant growth and price increases known as stagflation. Funds are not returning to their previous levels, according to Andy Maguire, a senior partner at Boston Consulting Group. (Business Report, South Africa)
Downturn, debt Dems' fault Aug 14, 2009
In the late seventies, economists were stumped by a never before seen problem called stagflation ... By about 1983 or so, the economy had recovered from the stagflation, but the government had gotted addicted to borrowing massive amounts of money and ran up a huge national debt. (Helena Independent Record, MT)
The bill will fall duefor crisis failures Aug 13, 2009
For the future, stagflation - with rising prices and economic stagnation - may be a more likely scenario than inflationary growth. Hossein Askari is professor of international business and international affairs at George Washington University. (Asia Times Online)
What Republicans Can Learn From Andrew Jackson Aug 13, 2009
The supply-side revolution emerged from grassroots revulsion to the welfare and high taxes of the 1960s and 70s, as well as the stagflation that marred the latter decade. Tax revolts in California and Massachusetts showed Republicans the way. (The American Conservative)
Winning by 'not losing' Aug 10, 2009
The market had down decades following the Panic of 1907, the Crash of 1929, and the post-Vietnam War stagflation of the 1970s. The dot. (Seacoast New Hampshire)
Debt levels remain too high despite rate cutting Jul 27, 2009
The result was low growth and high inflation - stagflation. There are signs this stagflationary situation may recur globally, given zero interest rates in major economies and huge doses of liquidity administered to the global economy. (Business Report, South Africa)
Stagflation fears for policy makers Jul 27, 2009
Figures on inflation and the job market, due this week, are expected to show whether South Africa is facing stagflation, the combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation, which poses a dilemma for policy makers. Inappropriate measures to stimulate growth can drive inflation higher, while attempts to curb inflation with high interest rates can stifle economic growth and job creation. (Business Report, South Africa)
What went wrong with economics Jul 26, 2009
Just as the Depression spawned Keynesianism, and the 1970s stagflation fuelled a backlash, creative destruction is already under way. Central banks are busy bolting crude analyses of financial markets onto their workhorse models. (The Economist)
Tightening Credit Becomes Bernanke Bind as Fed Faces Bond Purchase Unwind Jul 25, 2009
The publics view that there was a lack of will to fight inflation helped cause this phenomenon, known as stagflation. This is one reason Bullard wants the Fed to actually publish a plan for tackling inflation and not just draft it for internal purposes. (Bloomberg)
It'stime to revampthe Federal Reserve Jul 25, 2009
Ensuing financial instability had pushed unemployment to 25% during the Great Depression and 12% during the 1970' stagflation. Today, Fed policies have pushed unemployment from 4. (Asia Times Online)
Joe Scarborough Goes Paleo -- Maybe Jul 24, 2009
But they were coupled with a dramatic increase in federal spending on both guns and butter, without any need to whip stagflation or win an arms race with the Soviet Union, pressing supply-side theory into the service of borrow-and-spend economics. And while the tax cuts were small and temporary, the debt and spending commitments are large and permanent. (The American Conservative)
Central banks hold the floodgates Jul 22, 2009
Big liquidity injections lifted boats that were stuffed to the gunnels with assets falling in price in the crisis, and the risk that the cash flood would combine with the downturn to create stagflation (an inflationary recession) was minimal, because the markets were semi-frozen, and the new cash was not circulating aggressively. But the cash flood will provide too much adrenaline if the recovery continues and interest rates stay low. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
Keynes is not enough Jul 16, 2009
" Indeed, he was, as Skidelsky notes, "famously skeptical about econometrics," with numbers for him being "simply clues, triggers for the imagination", rather than the expressions of certainties or probabilities of past and future events. With their model of rational homo economicus in tatters and econometrics in disrepute, contemporary economists would do well to pay heed to Keynes' advice that if only "economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level... (Asia Times Online)
New Jobless Claims Drop Sharply to 565K Jul 10, 2009
I can go on about other scenarios, i.e. inflation, deflation, stagflation but that remains to be seen just what is going to transpire on the world markets that predicates that, as well as the US dollar and interest rates, etc. by socalsage July 9, 2009 6:19 AM PDT. (CBS News)
Stimulus II: Faster. Smaller. Trickier. Jul 9, 2009
It would give conservatives their biggest talking point since stagflation. Stimulus II:The big-budget summer sequel everyone is talking about. (Slate)
Growing optimism Jun 30, 2009
"Another good trading month for us, almost on par with May last year, with occupancy rates slightly down by 2% to 89%. However, advance bookings are still showing a 20% increase on last year. While I would expect this to fall back as the months go on, so far this is not the case. There is no doubt in my mind that more people will holiday in the UK this year, but like any business you have to market your product to the right cliental. I think we have pitched our campaign to suit, thus we are... (BBC News -- UK)
Bernanke Break Means Reappointment Is Assured: Kevin Hassett Jun 30, 2009
In fact, of the chairmen since 1951, only one, , served less than two terms, and he did so because he left the Fed in the midst of stagflation to become secretary of the Treasury. Soap Opera Plot. (Bloomberg -- Columnists)
When inflation is a threat Jun 20, 2009
Independent economist Andy Xie wrote in a recent article that rising oil prices are a stagflation factor, as they cause inflation and weaken growth ... Now, some economists are pointing to the possibility of stagflation happening in the near future ... (Stagflation is a dampening condition of inflation amid slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment. (The Star Online, Malaysia -- Business)
Economic impact of resurgent oil market Jun 20, 2009
Theres a risk that from facing deflation, we may now be facing stagflation, he warns. He adds that the concern among businesses will be whether they can pass on the increased costs to customers, given the weaker economic outlook this year. (The Star Online, Malaysia -- Business)
Welcome to the G-8world of illusion Jun 19, 2009
Such a situation used to be called "stagflation". The rise in stock, oil, and asset prices and consumer confidence should not be fallaciously considered as a sign of stabilization or even recovery. (Asia Times Online)
Speculative gamesstage comeback Jun 17, 2009
But before it happens, some very unpleasant people will have made further speculative billions and doomed the US economy to a decade of stagflation. Martin Hutchinson is the author of Great Conservatives (Academica Press, 2005) - details can be found at www. (Asia Times Online)
Welcome to the Hyperdepression Jun 16, 2009
Just as stagflation referred to the combination of high unemployment and price inflation rates in the 1970s something Keynesians thought was impossible we can use the term hyperdepression to refer to the mix of hyperinflation and a serious recession in real output. In the remainder of this article I'll explain my pessimistic outlook. (The American Conservative)
Street scenes from Tehran, history in the balance Jun 16, 2009
Lettuce enjoy the stagflation thats to come. Seems Barry wasted lots of cash saving GM, Chrylser and Ford OH MY. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution -- Opinion)
Hope and anxiety Jun 2, 2009
Worries about the broader macroeconomic impact of higher oil prices centre on the possibility of the return of stagflation, the combination of high inflation and declining output that marred the periods of the 1970s after the two oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 ... They doubted that higher oil prices would mean the return of stagflation, concluding that inflation, unemployment and output were markedly less responsive to oil prices during the two big oil price hikes since the 1980s, which began in... (The Economist)
Economist sees solid rebound in global economy in second half May 29, 2009
But we will not experience stagflation. . (The Star Online, Malaysia -- Business)
Monetary folly oils oil gains May 28, 2009
Economic recovery in 1982 following the long stagflation of the 1970s took place in the context of a rapidly declining oil price, which hit $8 per barrel in 1986 and remained stable around $18 per barrel for a long period spanning 1986-2000. This enabled the world economy to enjoy stable non-inflationary economic growth and employment. (Asia Times Online)
Rosenberg: U.S. Faces Double-Dip Recession May 27, 2009
"If I were in a position to be talking strategy to the (Obama) administration, I would be saying you've got to take the energy business seriously. You're going to end up in a stagflation trap.". If the economy climbs out of one recession and into another, it wouldn't be the first time. (Newsmax)
Meltdown 101: Deficits raise financing worries May 27, 2009
That could leave the country in a fix - caught between weak economic growth and rising inflation, a situation that was dubbed "stagflation" when it last occurred in the United States during the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Q: How big a threat is the risk of rising interest rates and a falling dollar stemming from the government's huge financing needs. (Anchorage Daily News)
* Identifying the successes, failures of Thatchers economic policy May 24, 2009
The most notorious symptom of this was the emergence of stagflation X simultaneously rising inflation and unemployment. Something had gone wrong with the system of economic management bequeathed by John Maynard Keynes. (Taipei Times, Taiwan -- World)
Inflation could 'break camel's back' May 24, 2009
Now, some are starting to warn about stagflation a toxic combination of higher prices and a struggling economy. Although the US Government officially supports a strong dollar, policy makers have let its value slide in past years because a weaker dollar makes exports cheaper. (Sydney Morning Herald -- Business)
To the Class of '09, jobs and a recession May 24, 2009
In the 1970s, the time of stagflation, the combination of baby boomers joining the work force and women staying in or rejoining in almost unprecedented numbers meant that even big increases in employment were insufficient to keep unemployment down. In the Reagan years and after them, on the other hand, the labor force grew slowly, so unemployment stayed down even as we managed fewer new jobs. (Albany Times Union)
Inflation: Coming To A Dollar Near You? May 23, 2009
For those people who feel wages have stagnated in recent years, inflation would make stagflation look very good. Even wage inctreases of four or five per cent per year would pale against high inflation. (CBS News)
Spring Reading for Conservatives May 21, 2009
As we wait on tenterhooks to learn whether Washington s feckless and free-spending politicians will manage to turn this recession into a Greater Depression (or possibly a Weimar-style hyperinflation), or if we ll escape with only a few years of Carter-era stagflation, it s a good time to take a new look at lessons from the financial crises of the past. Robert Murphy has a warning for the Obama Administration: Don t try another New Deal -- or we may end up with another Great Depression. (Human Events Online)
Sinking incomes May 19, 2009
The end result was the 'lost decade' of the 70s and stagflation which followed. " I sum it all up to the Austrian school of economics being Exactly Freaking Correct (EFC) that inflation in the money supply is Bad, Bad News (BBN), as anybody at Mises.org can tell you. But Mr Mickey thinks he can roughly estimate the inflation we are going to suffer, and says "all the forces are pointing towards a huge wave of inflation coming - an annual rate of 10% to 20% given the historical ranges. (Asia Times Online)
Ask an Expert May 18, 2009
That year, new president Gerald Ford had to deal with an ongoing, expensive conflict in Vietnam, a quadrupling of oil prices, a huge drop in the stock market, and 11% inflation combined with stagnant growth or "stagflation". With the economy in such bad shape, it hardly seemed like a time to start a new business, but that is exactly what Dennis Brown did, and he succeeded because he tapped into the economics and mood of the time and created a business that offered low, low prices. (USA Today -- Money)
Falling CPI gives new Govt elbow room May 16, 2009
Given that the jury is still out on how long it will be before the economy recovers, any complacency on the price front could see a repeat of the 1970s stagflation when stagnant growth and rising prices combined to make the wor 00004000 st possible mix. So any government would be ill-advised to squander the opportunity. (India Times)
Ag economist says farmers not immune to poor economy (2) May 10, 2009
In this case, he says unemployment will be 6 percent to 9 percent with stagflation or deflation. This would hit the United States and globally and likely would be 12-17 months long.. (Sioux Falls Tri-State Neighbor, SD)
'Remake America?' No thanks, Mr. President May 8, 2009
Voters then had a fresh memory of the failure of confiscatory tax rates and new spending to defeat either poverty in the 1960s or stagflation in the 1970s. Lulled by a quarter-century of prosperity, too few voters were alarmed by Obama s liberal agenda and his seemingly inexhaustible enthusiasm for ever larger government. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution -- Opinion)
Expert: China Controls Future of U.S. Dollar May 7, 2009
However, if global stagflation takes hold, as I expect it to, it will force China to accelerate its reforms to float its currency and create amarket-based financial system. . (Newsmax)
Head and Heart May 7, 2009
Yet few would recommend a return to the 70 percent tax rates and stagflation of America before Jack Kemp. Jack's ideals and priorities never really changed over the years, as a congressman, as a Cabinet secretary, as a vice presidential nominee. (Townhall.com)
Jack Kemp's Big Ideas May 6, 2009
Working with Wanniski, Arthur Laffer, Robert Mundell, Alan Reynolds, Steve Entin, Norman Ture, and many others, Jack developed an agnostic economic formula that solved the vexing problem of economic stagflation and malaise. Lower tax rates for everyone, he argued. (Townhall.com)
Monetarism enters bankruptcy May 6, 2009
Friedman called for a steady increase of the money supply at an annual rate of 3% to achieve a non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) as a solution to stagflation, when inflation itself causes high unemployment. Stagflation is a de facto invalidation of the Phillips Curve, which shows a negative correlation between the rate of unemployment and the rate of inflation. (Asia Times Online)
The mirage of recovery May 5, 2009
Bernanke's aggressive policy since August 2007 has even triggered stagflation: rising unemployment and inflation. It would be more natural to have a central bank with one single mandate - to preserve the value of money. (Asia Times Online)
Rate cut may be too little too late - experts May 4, 2009
"With the repo rate at 8.5 percent and average inflation expectations at 8.3 percent, our expected real interest rate is at 0.2 percent. There is a possibility the threats of low or negative growth and high inflation could collide into a cycle of stagflation," Marais said. Related Articles. (Business Report, South Africa)
The Last Optimist May 2, 2009
Or maybe we'll get the worst of both worlds: another Carter Era stagflation, which brought us a two-fer: both stagnant growth and a depreciating currency. The American economy may have seized up, but the engine is still there. (Townhall.com)
100-Day Lurch to the Left May 1, 2009
Meanwhile, the combination of deficit spending and easy money increases the threat of stagflation. Will Republicans take advantage of the wide opening created by Obama's 100-day lurch to the left. (Human Events Online)
IMF lost on the high seas Apr 28, 2009
Our prediction of over six months ago of double-digit unemployment in the US will come to pass, but we still may have a chance to deflect years of stagflation if we act now. Despite unsustainable fiscal deficits and household indebtedness, the Obama team has dwarfed George W Bush's financial disorder and has launched a US$787 billion stimulus package, a $275 billion housing subsidy, and created a budget with a deficit of $1. (Asia Times Online)
Metaphor Man Apr 28, 2009
Or what about how America got out of the Great Stagflation of the 70s. Fed chair Paul Volcker simply did the opposite of Obamas advice, raising interest rates mercilessly. (Townhall.com)
